NOAA: Short-Term Threat to Keys Remains Low

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NOAA: Short-Term Threat to Keys Remains Low

Graphic shows the northern end of the Loop Current has been pinched off into a large clockwise eddy (Eddy Franklin), indicating no clear path for spilled oil to enter the Loop Current from the source in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Graphic courtesy US Navy

Graphic shows the northern end of the Loop Current has been pinched off into a large clockwise eddy (Eddy Franklin), indicating no clear path for spilled oil to enter the Loop Current from the source in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Graphic courtesy US Navy

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July 15, 2010

The risk remains low for near-term Transocean/BP oil spill pollution threats to the Florida Keys and South Florida, according to officials involved in response efforts.

“This is because the Loop Current has been cut off from the northern Gulf of Mexico and our scientists are saying there is no clear path for oil to travel from the spill site, which is about 500 miles to the northwest of Key West,” according to Billy Causey, superintendent of the southeast region for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Sanctuaries, which includes the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.

Further exemplifying Causey’s point is that NOAA is not currently producing offshore oil spill trajectory maps.

The Gulf Loop Current is a clockwise current that normally carries water from the Yucatan Channel north into the Gulf of Mexico, then back down south off Florida’s west coast, past the Dry Tortugas and into the Gulf Stream.

NOAA is not certain how long the separation will remain, but the agency said it will resume production of offshore spill trajectory maps, if needed.

Causey explains the situation in a video that is being shown on this website’s dedicated oil spill information page.

On July 2, NOAA released a study, using historical wind and ocean currents to project long-term likelihoods (during a 120-day-period that began April 22) that surface oil products from the BP/Transocean leak might reach areas along U.S. Gulf and East coasts.

“Any oil reaching this area (South Florida and the Keys) would have spent considerable time degrading and dispersing and would be in the form of scattered tar balls and not a large surface slick of oil,” the NOAA study said, echoing previous statements made by the U.S. Coast Guard, Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and local officials.

For the study, a “threat” was defined as when BP/Transocean spill oil, sheen, tar balls or other effects might come within 20 miles of a shoreline. However, it does not indicate they would come ashore. Whether or not oil travels ashore depends upon wind and ocean currents at the time, NOAA said.

Tar balls are less stressful on the environment and easier to mitigate, Causey said.

Currently, for south Florida and the Keys, there is a very low risk of impact in the near future, due to the separation of the Loop Current, NOAA officials said.

There are no advisories recommending against travel to the Florida Keys or any other precautions advising visitors and residents not to engage in fishing, diving, swimming or other water sports, according to the Monroe County Health Department. Seafood from Florida Keys waters is safe to eat, officials said.

NOAA has closed a significant portion of the Gulf of Mexico to recreational and commercial fishing. The closest point of the closure to the Keys remains about 200 miles to the west of Key West.

Additional details on efforts to mitigate the oil spill are on these official Web sites:

Florida Department of Environmental Protection
NOAA
Deep Water Horizon Response

Florida Oil Spill Hotline (8 a.m.- 6 p.m.): 1-888-337-3569

More than 40 web cams streaming live video from the Keys’ waters, shorelines and area attractions are also available for the public to view.

Information is also available at Twitter andFacebook.

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